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Five future trends in mobile coupons

by Pat Kitano on July 29, 2010

Couponing exploded the first half of 2010, driven in part by Groupon’s big VC investment. Coupons.com reported almost double the revenues from the first half of 2010 over previous year. PromotionalCodes.org.uk published a forecast on mobile applications and couponing (click twice on graphic to enlarge) that predicts consumer spending on mobile coupon will grow from $90 million in 2009 to $6.5 billion in 2014.

MobileCoupons

Couponing drives mobile applications by delivering tangible consumer financial benefit together with ease of use  (coupons are storable data that reside on the device, no need to have scissors handy).

Here is where mobile couponing is headed:

1. Grey market coupon marketplaces:

A secondary “Stubhub” market for Groupon coupons is developing with DealsGoRound and CoupRecoup. Since coupons are storable data, not eBay products, coupons can conceivably be delivered from seller to buyer instantly with Paypal approval. In a future scenario, consumers will be able to find a destination restaurant and search through the grey markets for a coupon while waiting for the waiter.

2. Real time coupon advertising systems:

Coupon advertising can be developed for real time distribution, similar in concept to the Japanese build to order manufacturing process. Ski resorts facing lean crowds due to poor skiing conditions will be able to instantly distribute 1/2 price ski lift tickets on the evening of a snowfall to entice impulse skiers onto empty chairlifts. Restaurants with few dinner bookings will be able to distribute coupons throughout the afternoon usable instantly.

The best real time coupon advertising engine will be built as a marketplace like eBay with functionality that allows local businesses to post their deals quickly and monitor them in real time.

3. “Minority Report” Ad Billboards

The movie Minority Report demonstrated customized audio ads targeted directly to passing pedestrians, and in the movie, personalized to the identified person. In June, a company erected 27 digital billboards in Tokyo train stations that can digitally identify the sex and age of the onlooker and serve ads based on the profile.

The 2002-released movie made one Slate reviewer cringe at advertisement bombardment and the implied lack of privacy at the time, but shift to 2010, and societal adoption of personal transparency on the social media starts to make Minority Report ads enticing, particularly if consumers can save money. It’s like finding a $20 bill on the sidewalk.

The future delivery method for pedestrians can be txt, alert via a mobile app, as well as audio or personalized billboard presentation. The startup that can aggregate geolocated coupons and develop effective non-intrusive delivery methods (I don’t want to hear 10 beeps per block) will win.

4. Consumer demand systems

The big problem with search engines is simply their inability to efficiently find the product or service one wants to buy at the best price, particularly on a local level. Try googling “tennis racquet sale in San Francisco“; you’ll see that it’s impossible to find a local sports store with a sale going on. The startup that creates a data system that can access and catalog local business inventory from major chains (or even scrape chains’ online circulars) could deliver instant consumer solutions to shopping needs. For example, a query for a “Prince tour diablo tennis racquet” would return sales data (or coupons) from participating sporting goods chains and make it easier to find the best deal.

5. Real time inventory management on time-sensitive goods

This is the enterprise variation of 2.) Real time coupon ad systems. Time-sensitive, or perishable goods include airplane seats, hotel rooms, ski chair lifts, and concert seats that optimally are filled to 100% capacity. Mobile couponing systems can provide real time inventory management that gradually discounts based on time to expiration. For example, concert tickets would be discounted after the concert starts for impulse buyers. These systems would essentially reward last minute buyers with discounted rates, instead of socking them with highest possible fees. It allows consumers to drive into a city at 10:00pm and find the best hotel room deal.

Why might this work? People now schedule in real time and time flexibility is valuable. If the business systems can cater to consumer real time needs, it will not only foster good will, but it will also efficiently increase occupancy rates. Think about this… wouldn’t you love an application that really offered great last minute deals?

Related articles:

The New DIY Advertising

How Groupon forces Mainstream Media to Adopt the Couponing Ad Model

Local Coupon Aggregation

Brand Advertising doesn’t Fulfill Real Time Consumer Needs

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The New DIY Advertising

by Pat Kitano on July 26, 2010

In the 1960’s new media was television, and Madison Avenue evolved to show companies how to leverage the media through advertising. Advertising is now mostly associated with the commercial, a one-way message from company to consumer delivered via various media channels. We’re pleased to see Jeff Jarvis pronouncing this kind of advertising is “fucked”.

The evolution of social media as game changing marketing media is finally being evidenced by companies like Ford and Audi, which are both using Facebook to launch their new Ford Explorer and their Audi A7 today.

Ford Explorer Facebook

Audi A7 on Facebook

Like the Madmen who redefined brand advertising in the 60’s, a new corps of social media marketers is finally evolving within the major ad agencies after years of taunts that they either didn’t get it or more likely, didn’t want to jeopardize their established lucrative hold on corporate advertising budgets. It’s a reactive strategic move to remain relevant.

Social media marketing has proven to be far more amenable to ad hoc DIY solutions than traditional ad campaigns that require more extensive creative and media placement expertise than a Facebook page. More companies will develop their social media campaigns in-house because it’s the interaction between the company and its customers that counts, not as much between the ad agency and the customer.

At the local level, social media – based marketing applications will be more influential because small business didn’t use ad agencies. DIY advertising solutions are being developed by Adility and Wildfire that facilitate businesses in building promotional coupon campaigns. Using these tools, small business can create their own campaigns and solicit their own “media buys” like WildRivers in Irvine is doing with independent Breaking Irvine News:

Breaking Irvine News and WildRivers

Related articles:

Brand advertising doesn’t fulfill consumers’ real time needs

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Once upon a time, the sole revenue source of local media -TV, radio, newsprint – was advertising. Media was a controlled channel with high barriers to entry (TV stations cost money). Then Internet media – Google AdSense, SEO and Craigslist – chiselled at mainstream media’s revenue model. Now social media marketing looks like it’s reaching a tipping point as small businesses start setting up their Facebook pages and Twitter campaigns for free.

Local business now have marketing options, and the sales game has completely changed. Pre-social media, nobody liked getting a call from a salesperson, now it’s the kiss of death to call a client and ask “how about an ad campaign this month?”.

Screen shot 2010-07-15 at 11.08.39 PM

GannettLocal is Gannett’s new positional initiative to engage local business by offering up their new service as marketing consultants. Simply put, mainstream media needs to maintain their perch in a marketing campaign. By filling out an on-site marketing survey, GannettLocal recommends a template strategic marketing plan that ensures Gannett’s services get a piece of the budget.

For example, if a small business has $1,000/month marketing budget, Gannett Local may recommend the following resource allocation:

Screen shot 2010-07-15 at 11.11.53 PM

If a small business has zero marketing budget, Gannett Local may recommend:

Screen shot 2010-07-15 at 11.12.57 PM

Conclusion:

Sales tactics now require value propositions to even get their foot in the door. Mainstream media is retooling its sales forces into consulting forces. It’s a sea change in the role of sales, and the reason why everybody’s title is advisor, consultant or strategic planner.

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youtube tv

Google is talking about interactive video ads at this weekend’s Allen & Co. conference. Today, Twitvid is launching its video advertising platform over Twitter (press release). What’s important to know about video is that there is already an institutional history of the video format in the form of the :30 television spot.

Like television, the social media will act as broadcast media that will distribute the “video spot” over the channels – Facebook, Twitter – that are replacing television eyeballs. Even more promising are the upcoming geolocational marketing opportunities for local merchants who will be able to upload video, coupon deals and other content like menus on mobile applications like Yelp and Foursquare. Those first mover merchants who develop compelling media content will be rewarded with Facebook “likes”, the new currency for customer attraction and search results.

We’re now reaching the stage where the instant video upload for business starts to make sense. Remember the old Seesmic video conversation platform that Loic LeMeur took down last summer 2009 because he concluded video conversation adoption by the public was limited? I agree carrying on a video conversations may still attract a limited audience, but the ease of uploading video from iPhones etc. now makes it much more easier to develop video messages on the fly. For example, it would be easy for a chef to iPhone video the day’s dinner offerings and broadcast/post it via a social media distribution system like Posterous across the restaurant’s Twitter and Facebook feeds each afternoon:

Zuni restaurant chicken

It takes time for consumers to understand and adopt new media. The concept of Twitter was alien to most, until Oprah made Twitter accessible in April, 2009. The use of adhoc video for business messaging is still alien to those who believe video production quality standards are high hurdles, but pioneering businesses will soon figure out that audiences are more interested in the real time message being delivered in “living color”.

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The landscape of online local advertising has been changing dramatically since Groupon announced its powerhouse VC investment less than three months ago in April. Groupon and its gaggle of imitator couponing systems have forced traditional media to re-examine their CPM-based banner ad models, and they’re now adding the same kind of Daily Deals to their ad mix. Right down to the local print:

print coupon

(iPhone pic from: @bergenctynews)

The quick adoption of couponing systems by traditional media is an immediate reaction to ad competition, and signals a strategy to retain their traditional advertising channel to the consumer:

couponing model adopted by traditional media

In three months, a wall has been erected by traditional media; there’s no reason to develop partnerships with the Groupons and their ilk when they own the distribution channel to the local consumer:

Traditional media owns distribution to consumer

The biggest barrier now facing the infant couponing systems is gaining access to local media channels in order to promote their Daily Deals. They are essentially brand new companies, and they all leverage email lists and the social media as alternative channels to reach into the community.

The second barrier is building local sales infrastructure to service community businesses. Funded Groupon and LivingSocial can invest in local sales infrastructure, but the hundred other couponing ventures don’t have the luxury of capital and usually just build out in their home city.

What’s next for couponing systems

In order to scale their business regionally or nationally, couponing companies will create new or parallel business models:

  1. White label couponing systems for license use by local media companies – TV, radio, newspaper – to offer Daily Deals. The white label licensing concept can extend to national advertisers like Home Depot to broadcast their local weekly deals and granularly to the local chambers and civic associations wanting to promote their merchants.
  2. National ad agency and media buying services that acquire and harvest clients at the local level for national distribution across networks of local couponing and other advertising systems. For example, half price ski lift tickets at Vail or Mother’s Day gift wine packages from Napa can be sold through couponing systems regionally, even nationally.
  3. Coupon aggregation systems like TheDealMap, Yipit and DealRadar make it easier for consumers to find local deals in one list or map. Affiliate marketing models will contribute to the expansion of these types of coupon distribution systems down to the neighborhood level.

Related posts:

Local coupon aggregation and what’s next

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The Search Engine of “Likes”

by Pat Kitano on June 25, 2010

facebook likes

Crowdsourcing doesn’t work without critical mass. A business review on Yelp with 1,000 individual reviewers is statistically much more credible than those with sparse number of reviews. Now that Facebook “Likes” seem ubiquitous, Facebook plans on harnessing the Likes that map their Open Graph to develop new methods for social search based on what the crowd likes.

AllFacebook (an independent resource not associated with Facebook) is analyzing how the Facebook “Like” functions like a link:

While there was a lot of speculation about Facebook’s search strategy, the company has confirmed with us that “all Open Graph-enabled web pages will show up in search when a user likes them”…

Under this system “link baiting” will give rise to “like baiting”, which is how Facebook determines the relevance of information. This has become a full scale attack on Google on all fronts at this point as Facebook has officially entered the internet search market. While many of the details of the Open Graph were initially revealed at f8, it wasn’t clear what Facebook’s complete strategy would be and how big of a threat this would be to Google.

While we suggested that the like had just replaced the link, it has now become abundantly clear what Facebook’s intentions are. Facebook wants to launch the social semantic search engine as we alluded to during f8. Now that the search results are officially showing up as Facebook search results, the war has begun.

With Facebook building the semantic search engine based on data mining “likes”, the semantic web starts evolving in a surprising direction. Instead of building on top of the tagging and parsing of traditional media content, the semantic search engine can be built on the mass aggregation of the efficient one-click “like”. Even further down this road towards simplicity, the simple 140-character tweet will also attain semantic power when Twitter facilitates the inclusion of Twitter annotations to every tweet.

From: ReadWriteWeb:

Twitter posts already contain plenty of metadata that allows for smart filtering and organization, including date and location. With annotations, however, the metadata possibilities will be literally endless. Tweet metadata could eventually contain information or links based on words or phrases in the tweet itself, other options added to the tweet, or even other external data like the weather in the senders location at the time it was sent. Imagine being able to add an infinite number of hashtags to a post without wasting precious characters.

Conclusion:

The data mining of Facebook’s Open Graph and the metadata of Twitter tweets will give the simple acts of liking and tweeting more power to influence as new search engine criteria. Practically speaking, it will spawn new methodologies for getting recognized by social search. The most obvious one is simply just to get “liked”.

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Pete Cashmore, CEO of Mashable, with a take on new media at the Mashable Media Summit:

1:45> “Which company is the next big thing in social media?”
Pete: “the real obvious answer… would be Groupon…”

To elaborate, social “buying” via Groupon-type couponing systems really mirror a change in the way advertising is perceived. Advertising has essentially gone “real time”. Consumers respond to the instantaneous monetary benefit and call to action that a deep discount deal provides. To an advertiser, the coupon systems are cost effective and don’t have the fail risk of an expensive CPM-driven advertising campaign because there is no money upfront and they pay only for the customers who buy in. This “eat what you kill” philosophy drives online business models because there is an exact return on investment that advertisers can bank on.

2:43> Pete: “There’s a new trend… called User Generated Curation… users are curating content more than they’re creating it”. Pete talks about Facebook “likes”, Twitter “retweets”, and blogs that repurpose other content as evidence to the trend of content distribution. He also discusses how heavily curated news items will float to the top ranked positions on websites like Mashable because their popularity generates more traffic to the website.

Curation is, at its base, just the new media term for “publication”. Media has always published articles and columns based on the perceived strength of readership interest. Social media just makes this quantifiable through crowdsourcing algorithms. Mashable and Huffington Post are new media darlings because these sites curate popular news based on readership preference for social media and liberal politics, respectively.

Although Pete speaks about curation from a mass media viewpoint, he misses a point about where news is still being “created” en masse. That’s the hyperlocal social media that takes place in local blogs and the communities of Facebook and Twitter where local news is constantly created on a real time basis. The disappearance of salaried local journalists creates a void in local news, and various crowdsourced news models like spot.us are being tested.

Simply put, it’s easy to predict that crowdsourced community content will be generated more and more in Facebook, Twitter and other networks, and then curated by the community into contructs like 365 Things to Do and Breaking News.

Breaking Bergen County News Facebook

There will be Facebook business pages by local retailers that will advertise their weekly specials like they currently do with Sunday ad circulars:

Staples Facebook

In sum, even weekly sales data can be considered local content, and will be curated by locals sharing this timely information. In Japan, there’s already a popular housewives’ social network that provides real time pricing information on local stores.

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how to go out to eat

ReadWriteWeb reports Yelp and OpenTable, the two leading social apps for restaurant reviews and restaurant reservations respectively, have partnered so consumers can easily move from a Yelp restaurant review to making a reservation on Open Table without leaving the Yelp site.

This “mashup” of applications by process is not new; note Amazon reviews + fulfillment engine, eBay + Paypal. However, Yelp/OpenTable augurs a more efficient way for consumers to identify deals and consummate the transaction by combining not only complementary applications, but also complementary social networks. In an ideal online world, the process of finding restaurant deal coupons, checking reviews and booking the reservation should be portable across the constellation of applications:

Aggregated restaurant applications

“Open sourcing” applications by sharing APIs is starting a new wave of consumer utility. It’s much easier than going from site to site.

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Local Couponing Aggregation and What’s Next

by Pat Kitano on May 18, 2010

Thanks to the growing buzz of local couponers Groupon and its cohorts, consumers are being exposed to and adopting the deep discount coupon opportunities in their neighborhoods. The next step in the evolution of local coupon advertising is aggregating all the coupons and displaying them in lists and on maps. The one stop shop approach compiles daily deals so consumers don’t need to subscribe to each individually via email, Twitter, Facebook, etc. The newest and best example of local coupon aggregation launched last week in TheDealMap, a  service by the Center’d group:

thedealmap

TheDealMap not only aggregates the coupons from the Groupon-type Daily Deal promoters, but allows local retailers to add their own deals. Greg Sterling provides a comprehensive description of TheDealMap’s features.

What’s next for local couponing?

Truly mobile coupon redemption

The new online coupon processing models still use a form of “clipping” that forces purchasers to print out their coupons for redemption. Services must do away with the print model so coupons can be purchased on the spot and redeemed via screen bar code. Groupon and others have been restricting use to start one day after purchase so that their clients don’t receive deep discounts that cannibalize profits. Expect less discounted on-the-spot couponing to emerge that will still get customers in the door.

Multimedia / video couponing

Replicate the infomercial. Anybody that will sit through an infomercial and purchase a product (and many do) will potentially do the same on an online video presentation. Expect local retailers to repurpose marketing campaigns that would have used TV media by applying their TV ad budget to a deep discount online video offer. Media campaigns would be easy to embed in the current couponing systems.

Value-add local advertising models trump banner ads

Local advertising now works in real time too. We’ve discussed the problem with traditional brand banner-style advertising that provide little immediate incentive to a consumer who wants either a direct monetary benefit (discounts are “instant money”) or a quick solution to locating the neighborhood stores where they can buy a product most cheaply.

Pre-internet, local newspapers made the bulk of their revenue advertising sales and classifieds. The demand for local transactional data is no different than 20 years ago. Today, there is immediate value in getting your deal across to a local buying pool in real time because transaction engines like TheDealMap are positioned to become local trading networks. It worked with Craigslist, arguably Local Transaction Engine 1.0.

All the major (and minor) mobile players – Foursquare, Gowalla, Twitter and Facebook – are targeting local couponing strategies. Expect the transaction model based on couponing to morph into new local trading systems for classifieds, delivery services and other daily life necessities.

The spawning of a commercial business model for local media

Local journalistic ventures seeking funding sources can develop affiliate relationships with the coupon aggregators and services themselves. Couponing can provide an immediate quantifiable ROI attractive to local merchants that traditional CPM-based banner advertising misses, particularly when a local venture is just starting up. In fact, any local portal network can add couponing systems to attract consumer audiences monitoring such deals, and to develop affiliate revenue sources.

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As one of the volunteer organizers of Mortgage Revolution, I’m pleased that we put Mortgage Revolution, a leading edge mortgage industry conference, together with Spot.us, a nonprofit organization developing the new journalistic models to fund stories that need to be heard.

Spot.us Mortgage Revolution

Mortgage Revolution is an industry conference that shares the proceeds from conference fees after expenses to nonprofits like Spot.us. With the proceeds, Spot.us is able to test a new method for funding stories. The sponsor, in this case, Mortgage Revolution, puts together a survey with Spot.us to initiate a discussion on a topic relevant to the sponsor. Spot.us’s community takes an online survey of three questions about how the mortgage industry is perceived in the wake of the housing foreclosure crisis. Each respondent then receives $5 worth of credit to apply to the funding of the Spot.us story of their choice.

The model accomplishes three goals:

  • Spot.us involves its community of readers to discuss issues related to the sponsors’ mission.
  • The journalistic community wins by getting more stories written through “credits” derived from sponsor funding.
  • The people win by “voting up” the stories they want funded and written.

Mortgage Revolution’s mission is to show mortgage professionals how to make their business simple and transparent to the consumer, and to change the perception of an industry tainted by the foreclosure crisis. Spot.us steps up and illuminates that mission to their readers. It’s a good fit.

Related article:

Poynter Online / Bill Mitchell NewsPay

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