Reviewing 2010 – based on 2009 media predictions

One year ago, I listed ten media predictions for 2010. Here’s an update. Many of my predictions are still work in progress:

1) Community engagement will become the driver of new local media.

  • One definitive result: 2010 brought the expansion of AOL’s Patch across almost 200 cities, each with a salaried managing editor. It’s important that new local media networks have footprints on the ground to be credible to the community.

2) Mobile + Local advertising = Penny Saver 2.0.

  • Key result: The advent of Groupon as Penny Saver 2.0, and one of the biggest internet stories of 2010.

3) Mobile + Advertising + Pubsubhubbub = Alert systems

  • Real time alert systems are still evolving, and will be an integral part of the demand side shopping systems we’ll see in 2011. For example, folks will soon be able to subscribe to local deals via location based applications like Facebook Places, Foursquare or TheDealMap for alerts from merchants they like.

4) Advertising as content

  • By definition, content connotes value that is enticing and in demand. Again, Groupon ushers in a sea change in advertising with a group buying platform.  Deals have become a popular form of advertising content, and advertisers will continue to seek fun, value-based ways to make ads entertaining, as opposed to “meh” kind of promotions.

5) Everybody becomes a marketer

6) Virtual socializing and webinar ubiquity

  • Not quite. Last year, I had thought that synchronous group communication network via some form of simple instantaneous webinar system would appear. Instead, we’re seeing small group networks forming in more exclusive social networks like Namesake, Quora and Path; a kind of backlash to the massive Facebook society.

7) The grass roots web

  • WordPress and the blogging platforms allowed normal folks to build blog sites without programming knowledge. The next stage is to make API based applications accessible to consumers. We’re now seeing third party white label group buying systems and API developers like NorthSocial.com offering services that enhance blogs, websites and Facebook pages with features that keep them updated and relevant. Unfortunately, there’s still no way for the nonprogrammer to build an application from an API without hiring programmers.

8 ) The stream is more important than the website

  • Subject to debate. This prediction was based on my extrapolating the hypergrowth of stream based applications like Facebook and Twitter, and deducing that the stream would contain more real time information and dialogue than a website. Now we are seeing the merge of the stream into a website construct with the ascendance of Tumblr (John Battelle provides an elegant explanation about why Tumblr fits this bill)
  • Websites and blogs have the requisite screen real estate to impart messages – marketing, political or otherwise – and to be positioned as the hub or reference point for delivering these messages. The stream feeds into the hub. Stream messages, say on Facebook or Twitter, are impermanent and often non-contextual if the message is part of a conversation. Websites are permanent and contextual, and Tumblr can easily be set up to be the hubs of this constellation.

9) Curation is the new syndication

10) A new era of open social media

  • Headline – January 9, 2010 – Read Write Web:

Stay tuned for 2011 predictions to be uploaded later this week.

About Pat Kitano

Patrick Kitano works with brands in developing hyperlocal engagement solutions and is administrator of the Breaking News Network, a national hyperlocal network devoted to community service. He is the author of The Local Network on Street Fight, and is reachable via Twitter @pkitano and email pkitano@gmail.com.

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